Thursday, May 04, 2006

I Actually Believe Iggs Will Take This One

Well, that's just my personal opinion, but I'm biased. Still, I think the momentum is with Iggs.

La Presse, a couple weeks ago, published a report on the different candidates and what they saw the odds of some of the candidates:

1. Michael Ignatieff: 8/10
2. St├ęphane Dion: 6/10
3. Ken Dryeden: 5/10
4. Scott Brison: 4/10
5. Joe Volpe: 3/10

They left Bob Rae out of the analysis, despite the fact that it was published the day after Rae announced. Regardless, they detailed a two-page article on him and it seemed to articulate that Rae was head-to-head with Iggs. I think there`s an element of truth to that.

Indeed Rae has a stellar organization backing him up and his brother John, the VP of Power Corporation, is really helping him out. Still, Rae is a very divisive candidate and I think he will have a very difficult time attracting the Stronachs and the Brisons of the Party.

Iggs has a pretty good team of organizers too. It will be interesting to see who Denis Coderre decides to support, especially after yesterday`s press announcement. I think Coderre was hinting at the fact that he would be supporting Iggs. That would be a big win.

First, Coderre acknowledged the fact that he would like to eventually become the leader of the Party. If he wants to so this, I don`t think he would support someone young and who has a lot of time ahead of them. Second, he took a shot at Dion, which is intriguing given the fact that Dion and Iggs are similar candidates and vying for the same demographic for support. Third, he has stated in the past that the Party should alternate between leaders from Quebec and from the rest of Canada. Fourth, he believes it is imperative to have a fluently bilingual leader. And fifth, he bluntly denied supporting Rae.

So this is all to say that even though Iggs and Rae might be head-to-head as front-runners in the race, I think Iggs might have the upper hand. It looks like the momentum is with him.

10 Comments:

At 2:28 PM, Blogger S.K. said...

Igs momentum is all in Quebec. The key words in your post are also "a couple of weeks ago" That's like an eternity in Politics. He was the most organized at the beginning, nothing more, hype around his candidacy, good and bad, nothing more. More recent Polls put Mr. Dion as the first choice in Quebec, and from what I can see, Mr. Kennedy is first everywhere else. That being said, no one will win on the first ballot so who knows.

 
At 2:57 PM, Blogger Pedro said...

Yeah, I totally agree a week is a lifetime in politics, as we learned through the course of the election.

And I'm aware that Dion is doing alright in Quebec and that Kennedy is leading in all areas of the country except for Quebec.

Decima Poll: http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/060425BE.pdf

Still, though, when it comes down to it, it's about getting your vote out. I think Rae and Ignatieff have the best organizational team to do so. But, true, this could be anyone's game. I just think that the momentum is with Ignatieff.

With Mark Marissen supporting Dion, though, I think Dion will do quite well. I wouldn't be surprised if he took it either.

I don't think Kennedy or Rae will win though... just can't see it happening.

 
At 3:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iggy has the momentum right now, but boy oh boy Kennedy has some wicked organization. It is going to be close.

 
At 4:03 PM, Blogger KennedyFacts said...

There is only one direction Stockwell Kennedy can go as sleeper revelations of his past are brought up. It's Day 8 and he still has not corrected his website bio.

 
At 5:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What's wrong with the bio?

 
At 7:06 PM, Blogger calgarygrit said...

Those are pretty odd odds.

Four people can win this thing - Ignatieff, Kennedy, Dion, or Rae.

Ignatieff will likely be on the final ballot with one of the other three and I wouldn't underestimate the ABI possibility. Hard to say who will take it.

 
At 6:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iggy will take this based on the fact that the "Liberal Establishment" is backing Iggy and Rae.
The grassroots will eventually figure this out and accept the inevitable outcome.
4 or 5 of the declared candidates who cannot pay the $25,000.00 initial deposit will drop out and support Iggy making it look like Iggy continues to have the momentum after the LPC(O) convention.
MPs and other professionals or influencial Canadians in business, law and government will continue to jump on the Iggy steamroller this summer.
We are all coming to the conclusion there is only 3 national campaigns for leader, 4 regional (i.e. GTA) campaigns and 4 "also rans" who will probably drop out after getting pressured by the establishment this summer or early fall.
Accept fate, support the eventual leader who will likely be Iggy, when chosen and prepare the for the next election.
(Lord knows the Tories are preparing to obliterate Liberalism in english Canada and we cannot afford to attack eachother after the leadership convention).

 
At 10:03 AM, Blogger Pedro said...

Well I hope you're right that Iggs wins, Brant Liberal, but I just really hope that the leadership race is that pre-determined. Perhaps it's my youth or my naivite, but I like to think this will be a good, healthy, democratic race.

I want Iggs to win, because I think he'd be great at leader (well, Dion too) and not because he's got it in the bag.

 
At 11:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like Dion also. He has my heart but Iggs has my head.
Sorry if I came across too harsh or opinionated.

 
At 2:58 PM, Blogger Pedro said...

No, hey - not at all. I know what you mean, though, organizers have so much pull and business have even more. I can understand your frustration and if I wasn't so young or naive, perhaps I would share in your fustration.

 

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